DEMONETISATION IS NO 'WAR' ON BLACK MONEY.
The decision to demonetise Rs. 500/- and Rs. 1,000/- notes was taken on 08th November, 2016. Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared in a public address, that these would cease to be 'legal tender'. They can be used for buying railway and airline tickets, milk from government outlets, paying for petrol and medicines, and tendering tax. The government had obviously anticipated adjustment pains, but nothing on the scale that is being reported. It is evident people cannot yet exchange their old notes for new ones. The RBI hasn't supplied new paper money in adequate quantities. In fact, enough haven't yet been printed. The Finance Minister has admitted that the misery will continue for three more weeks. On current evidence, it is likely that Arun Jaitley will be proved wrong.
Trade in everyday goods for ordinary people has, meanwhile, shrunk to a fraction because people don't have cash. Farmers can't buy seeds as they can't pay for them. The country has slowed down. There have been a few deaths of people waiting in queues. When all these problems are pointed out, BJP President Amit Shah says the Opposition leaders have been 'exposed' for supporting black money. Speaking to NRIs in Japan, the PM said more steps to cause pain to holders of black money aren't ruled out.
The BJP used to oppose demonetisation while in opposition. But now, before the crucial Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, the device is being pitched as a moral crusade which only a resolute and clean government could unfurl. There is sanctimony abroad. Propaganda has upended facts. The facts are, of course, revealing. According to the data, only two or three percent of money that has escaped taxation - in other words 'black money' - is in the form of Rs. 500/- and Rs. 1,000/- currency notes. A good part of this is likely to be with ordinary citizens, such as farmers, labourers, small shopkeepers and traders, teachers. This suggests that the drive initiated by the government with a messianic message is a dud. If it doesn't know this, ignorance has crossed all bounds.
Away from the drama, almost all black money has already been converted into real estate, gold and jewellery, and siphoned off as foreign currency - away from the prospect of demonetisation. Most of the stashed demonetised notes are with politicians and their parties. The allegation is that the BJP had advance intimation and converted its share into acceptable notes well before 08th November, 2016. How's that for operating smartly?
Demonetisation should unify the Political Scenario and not divide it: Demonetisation does not signify the doom of the opposition if it embraces the transformed situation. Nitish Kumar has shown the way. Nor can policy measure endlessly keep the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in power unless it is accompanied by apparent and verifiable delivery on the ground. The BJP must cease gloating over some recent election victories which it attributes to Prime Minsiter Narendra Modi's shock decision of 08th November, 2016 to demonetise the old Rs. 500/- and Rs. 1,000/- notes. The election victories may well be due to demonetisation or secondary reasons might have played an equal or bigger role. In any case, gloating is not in order seeing how ordinary people are facing uncommon hardship in a suddenly cash-deficit economy.
On the other hand, the Opposition, with the exception of a few leaders like Nitish Kumar, Naveen Patnaik and N. Chandrababu Naidu, has shot itself in its collective foot by mindlessly opposing demonetisation. Mamata Bannerjee's 'clean' reputtaion is in tatters. A certain half Chief Minister who had allied with her to bring down the Narendra Modi government has been severely wounded. His supposedly 'clean' reputation has evaporated like Mamata's. His party has desperately embarked on a scheme of cash-for-election tickets and this scam will explode sooner than later. The Congress party and certain regional formations have likewise seen their popularity plummet since the 08th November, 2016 demonetisation. They planned for a Bharat Bandh, but with the likes of Nitish Kumar unwilling to be identified on the side of black money hoarders and Pakistani counterfeiters, the bandh collpased. The Congress and even the Left parties said they had never supported a bandh but merely organised potest marches to reflect public anger at the hardships caused by demonetisation. Whatever the ruse employed to combat the Modi government, it has failed. Clearly, public opinion is with Narendra Modi on demonetisation.
From his position of new strength, it is the duty of the Prime Minsiter to reach out to the Opposition and end the stalemate in Parliament. The two Houses of Parliament must be allowed to debate demonetisation. The behaviour and attitudes of the Opposition in this regard are neither desirable nor justified. The government is ready for a debate. In a welcome break from the past, the Modi government has encouraged free and fierce debates in Parliament. By doing so, it has not done a favour to the Republic. All the same, it has respected the spirit of democracy. The ruling side will obviously do the same. This is the way out of the present political impasse.
Demonetisation does not signify the doom of the Opposition if it embraces the transformed situation. Nitish Kumar has shown the way. Nor can any policy measure endlessly keep the BJP in power unless it is accompanied by apparent and verifiable delivery on the ground. Instead of crowing about recent election victories, M. Venkaiah Naidu & Co. must use their time, energy and organisational skills to minimise the hardships caused by demonetisation. Cheerleaders have proved the nemesis of the dynastic Congress party. Surely, Modi does not want a repetition of this in the BJP.
The Prime Minsiter has done well to constitute a committee of Chief Ministers led by Chandrababu Naidu to resolve the problems arising from demonetisation. The chief focus of this committee according to the media is to enable a cashless economy. The focus is wrong and dangerously misguided in the present circumstances. The focus must solely be to restore confidence in the currency and in the banking system. Confidence will be restored when cash equivalent or nearly equivalent to the demonetised sums is raidly injected into the system, only after that can the economy be gradually and gently steered to one where the cash component is minimal. The economy has withstood one shock of 08th November, 2016. It cannot absorb another so soon.
The committee of Chief Ministers should be expanded to include those from other parties, including the Congress and the CPI-M. The Congress is a national party or at least retains the pretensions of one. It should not reduce itself to a B-grade clone of Mamata Bannerjee's Trinamool Congress, who the poor Bengalis of Bengal are stuck with. The Congress should forthwith cease disruption of Parliament, nominate a Chief Minister to the Chief Ministers' committee and earn the nation's gartitude, and agree to a proper debate on demonetisation in the two Houses. The CPI-M shoudl also send a Chief Minister to the Committee. Manik Sarkar has said no, which is a pity because he is a fine man. In his place, Pinarayi Vijayan should promptly step in.
Critical to a successful democracy is vigorous and vibrant public opinion. Public opinion supports demonetisation. It is the duty and responsibility of the entire political establishment, the ruling and the Opposition sides included, to make demonetisation a success with the least hardship caused to the people. It also devolves on the BJP leadership to stop making political capital out of demoentisation. The perils of hubris are ever present.
Demonetisation should unify the Political Scenario and not divide it: Demonetisation does not signify the doom of the opposition if it embraces the transformed situation. Nitish Kumar has shown the way. Nor can policy measure endlessly keep the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in power unless it is accompanied by apparent and verifiable delivery on the ground. The BJP must cease gloating over some recent election victories which it attributes to Prime Minsiter Narendra Modi's shock decision of 08th November, 2016 to demonetise the old Rs. 500/- and Rs. 1,000/- notes. The election victories may well be due to demonetisation or secondary reasons might have played an equal or bigger role. In any case, gloating is not in order seeing how ordinary people are facing uncommon hardship in a suddenly cash-deficit economy.
On the other hand, the Opposition, with the exception of a few leaders like Nitish Kumar, Naveen Patnaik and N. Chandrababu Naidu, has shot itself in its collective foot by mindlessly opposing demonetisation. Mamata Bannerjee's 'clean' reputtaion is in tatters. A certain half Chief Minister who had allied with her to bring down the Narendra Modi government has been severely wounded. His supposedly 'clean' reputation has evaporated like Mamata's. His party has desperately embarked on a scheme of cash-for-election tickets and this scam will explode sooner than later. The Congress party and certain regional formations have likewise seen their popularity plummet since the 08th November, 2016 demonetisation. They planned for a Bharat Bandh, but with the likes of Nitish Kumar unwilling to be identified on the side of black money hoarders and Pakistani counterfeiters, the bandh collpased. The Congress and even the Left parties said they had never supported a bandh but merely organised potest marches to reflect public anger at the hardships caused by demonetisation. Whatever the ruse employed to combat the Modi government, it has failed. Clearly, public opinion is with Narendra Modi on demonetisation.
From his position of new strength, it is the duty of the Prime Minsiter to reach out to the Opposition and end the stalemate in Parliament. The two Houses of Parliament must be allowed to debate demonetisation. The behaviour and attitudes of the Opposition in this regard are neither desirable nor justified. The government is ready for a debate. In a welcome break from the past, the Modi government has encouraged free and fierce debates in Parliament. By doing so, it has not done a favour to the Republic. All the same, it has respected the spirit of democracy. The ruling side will obviously do the same. This is the way out of the present political impasse.
Demonetisation does not signify the doom of the Opposition if it embraces the transformed situation. Nitish Kumar has shown the way. Nor can any policy measure endlessly keep the BJP in power unless it is accompanied by apparent and verifiable delivery on the ground. Instead of crowing about recent election victories, M. Venkaiah Naidu & Co. must use their time, energy and organisational skills to minimise the hardships caused by demonetisation. Cheerleaders have proved the nemesis of the dynastic Congress party. Surely, Modi does not want a repetition of this in the BJP.
The Prime Minsiter has done well to constitute a committee of Chief Ministers led by Chandrababu Naidu to resolve the problems arising from demonetisation. The chief focus of this committee according to the media is to enable a cashless economy. The focus is wrong and dangerously misguided in the present circumstances. The focus must solely be to restore confidence in the currency and in the banking system. Confidence will be restored when cash equivalent or nearly equivalent to the demonetised sums is raidly injected into the system, only after that can the economy be gradually and gently steered to one where the cash component is minimal. The economy has withstood one shock of 08th November, 2016. It cannot absorb another so soon.
The committee of Chief Ministers should be expanded to include those from other parties, including the Congress and the CPI-M. The Congress is a national party or at least retains the pretensions of one. It should not reduce itself to a B-grade clone of Mamata Bannerjee's Trinamool Congress, who the poor Bengalis of Bengal are stuck with. The Congress should forthwith cease disruption of Parliament, nominate a Chief Minister to the Chief Ministers' committee and earn the nation's gartitude, and agree to a proper debate on demonetisation in the two Houses. The CPI-M shoudl also send a Chief Minister to the Committee. Manik Sarkar has said no, which is a pity because he is a fine man. In his place, Pinarayi Vijayan should promptly step in.
Critical to a successful democracy is vigorous and vibrant public opinion. Public opinion supports demonetisation. It is the duty and responsibility of the entire political establishment, the ruling and the Opposition sides included, to make demonetisation a success with the least hardship caused to the people. It also devolves on the BJP leadership to stop making political capital out of demoentisation. The perils of hubris are ever present.
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