THE BOSPHORUS OPTION.

If the dastardly terror attack in Nice wasn't enough to unsettle Europe, already straining under the twin crises of terrorism and an exodus of refugees, there was more explosive news in July 2016: an aborted military coup in Turkey, the continent's most crucial frontline state in the war against ISIS. To us in South Asia, a coup is no uncommon occurrence. That comfort factor must be so deeply embedded in our national consciousness that the MEA's mercurial response in cut-and-paste wording was unsurprising: "India calls upon all sides to support democracy and the mandate of the ballot and avoid bloodshed", it read. It was in synch with those of others India has begun to break bread with a global high tables: back an elected government, frown upon military rule, warn against violence.

But already, by July 2016, disturbing statistics and gory pictures were splashed across many European dailies. A total of 265 people had been killed in a single, bloody night in Turkey's capital Ankara and its most populous city Istanbul. About 104 of them were coup supporters, mostly troops. Unofficial figures claim over 6,000 people, including several 100 judges, have since been detained. At a press conference on 16th July, 2016, Turkish Prime Minister Yildirim acknowledged the bloodshed and apologised. Mistakes could happen in the heat of the moment, but it was a day of 'solidarity, not division', he said.  

Since 1960, Turkey has seen three successful coups, but each to protect, not gag, electoral freedom and Western style secularism, the touchstones of "Kemalism", the ideology introduced by modern Turkey's founding father, former Army officer and first President Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. Each time elected politicians veered away from it and towards Islamism, the Army stepped in, withdrawing only when Ataturk's secular, modern state was restored. Last week, for the first time, the Army was beaten back by supporters of all-powerful and controversial President Recip Tayyip Erdogan, who has ruled Turkey for fourteen years, first as PM and then as President. Mr. Erdogan is founder of the ruling Islamist AKP and is allegedly a sympathiser, if not supporter of ISIS.

So is the world's jubilation at the 'restoration of democracy' and Mr. Erdogan's survival misplaced? Or was the defeat of the coup by millions of ordinary Turkish citizens who united across political and ideological divides at the behest of Mr. Erdogan, reason enough to support the return of a President who has repeatedly vowed to rewrite Turkey's secular Constitution to please conservative voters who form sixty percent of the electorate?

President Erdogan is a former footballer, has served time for inciting religious fanaticism and tried repeatedly to gag the media. He has sought to endow the ceremonial office of President with absolute powers, sacked critics in the Cabinet and built and lives in the world's largest Palace in the heart of Ankara. He was suspected of allowing weapons transfers to Syrian militant groups and accused of financing and supporting ISIS till at least two years ago. Yet, there are solid reasons why Turks came out in such large numbers to back such a man. It is Mr. Erdogan who has spearheaded negotiations for Turkey's coveted membership - currently under process - of the European Union (EU). It is his government which ensured an economic recovery after a financial crisis in 2001 and promised infrastructure advancement. 

Despite the global recession in 2011, Turkey's economy went on an upward growth curve through tax cuts on housing and other steps and established itself as one of the fastest growing in the world. Its budget deficit decreased in keeping with EU criteria and it is described by both the CIA and ratings organisations as a 'a developed country' and an 'emerging, upper-middle class market economy'.

"An Islamic state remains Erdogan's long-term goal", writes Turkish commentator Mustafa Akyol, but notes that the President's ambitions are 'more about power than doctrine'. 'While religious symbolism has broad appeal in Turkey, a Quran thumping Islamic state does not exist'. Akyol cites a 2013 Pew Research Centre poll showing that barely twelve percent of Turks supported Sharia as the official law, in contrast to 84 percent of Pakistanis and 74 percent of Egyptians. (Expectedly, it was Egypt that on 16th July, 2016, blocked a proposed UN resolution to 'respect democratic institutions' in Turkey).

It was a rumour-laden weekend. Mr. Erdogan had made his appeal to his people from an aircraft hovering over remote Turkish territory for 40 minutes, only after an unsuccessful plea for asylum to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, reported NBC. Elsewhere, it was suggested that Mr. Erdogan had engineered the coup himself to justify grabbing more power. But how will the failed coup affect Turkey's hard-won image in the West as "one of us"; expect from the resurrected Turkish President, who, as a self-declared 'conservative democrat' should be a natural partner for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP?

The pre-dominantly Christian EU's long-awaited acceptance of Turkey's membership application (though chiefly a 'reward' for Ankara's supportive role against ISIS as a NATO member) hangs in balance. In the eyes of the West, a coup - failed or otherwise - is likely to reinforce the impression that Turkey is an unstable, divided, Islamic country of the same ilk as Pakistan or Egypt, with even its most 'secular' institution, the Army, now showing signs of an ideological divide. It will be up to Mr. Erdogan to moderate his utterances, his hitherto dismissive stance on ISIS and ensure the support he got from even his biggest detractors on 15 July, 2016 doesn't fritter away.

India has been frustrated by Turkey's steadfast support to Pakistan over Kashmir. Though that stand has softened in recent times - an achievement that can be attributed to the MEA's sustained efforts but also India's growing clout, Turkey last month again opposed India's admission into the Nuclear Supplier's Group. 

Still, there is growing bilateral cooperation in education, technology and commerce. Turkish and Indian airports have become key transcontinental hubs for both countries. Over 150 Indian companies, including GMR, Tata Motors, Mahindra and others, have busniesses in Turkey. Brexit unleashed fears that Indian exports to Europe, that were routed through UK in the absence of an acceptable India-EU bilateral trade agreement, will suffer. By staying the course with the brand of realpolitik that has come to mark the Modi government's foreign policy and engaging with Mr. Erdogan, an alternative gateway to Europe may well open up, this time across the Bosphorus Strait.

(Based on an article written by Padma Rao Sundarji, former longstanding South Asia bureau chief of Der Siegel and a veteran foreign correspondent, published in Deccan Chronicle dated 20th July, 2016).

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